ˆ GDP t = GDP t SCAN t (1) t stat : (3.71) (5.53) (3.27) AdjustedR 2 : 0.652

Transcription

1 We study the relationship between SCAN index and GDP growth for some major countries. The SCAN data is taken as of Oct. The SCAN is of monthly frequency so we first compute its three-month average as quarterly SCAN. The estimators and statistics are summarized below for each country. For AUD (Australia): ˆ GDP t =. +.9GDP t +.7SCAN t () t stat : (.7) (.) (.7) AdjustedR :. For BRL (Brazil): ˆ GDP t = SCAN t () t stat : (.7) (.) AdjustedR :.9 ˆ GDP t =. +.GDP t +.77SCAN t () t stat : (.) (.) (.7) AdjustedR :.99 For CAD (Canada): ˆ GDP t =. +.97SCAN t () t stat : (.) (9.9) AdjustedR :.9 ˆ GDP t =.97 +.GDP t +.7SCAN t () t stat : (.) (7.) (.) AdjustedR :.9 For CHF (Swiss): ˆ GDP t =. +.97SCAN t () t stat : (.7) (7.) AdjustedR :.7

2 ˆ GDP t =. +.GDP t +.SCAN t (7) t stat : (7.) (.) (.9) AdjustedR :.9 For CNY (China), ˆ GDP t =. +.97SCAN t () t stat : (9.9) (.) AdjustedR :.9 ˆ GDP t =.7 +.GDP t +.9SCAN t (9) t stat : (.9) (.7) (.) AdjustedR :.97 For EUR, ˆ GDP t = SCAN t () t stat : (.) (.) AdjustedR :. ˆ GDP t =.9 +.GDP t +.79SCAN t () t stat : (7.9) (.) (7.9) AdjustedR :.9 For FRA (France), ˆ GDP t =. +.9SCAN t () t stat : (9.7) (.) AdjustedR :.99 ˆ GDP t =. +.GDP t +.SCAN t () t stat : (.7) (.) (.) AdjustedR :.

3 ˆ GDP t = SCAN t () t stat : (7.7) (.79) AdjustedR :.9 For GBP (UK), ˆ GDP t =.7 +.GDP t +.7SCAN t () t stat : (.) (.) (.9) AdjustedR :.9 For GER (Germany), ˆ GDP t =. +.9SCAN t () t stat : (.9) (9.9) AdjustedR :.9 ˆ GDP t =. +.GDP t +.7SCAN t (7) t stat : (.) (.9) (.7) AdjustedR :.9 For ITA (Italy), ˆ GDP t =. +.9SCAN t () t stat : (.) (.) AdjustedR :.9 ˆ GDP t =. +.GDP t +.7SCAN t (9) t stat : (.9) (.) (.) AdjustedR :.9 ˆ GDP t =. +.9SCAN t () t stat : (.7) (.) AdjustedR :.99

4 For JPY (Japan), ˆ GDP t =. +.GDP t +.9SCAN t () t stat : (.9) (.) (.) AdjustedR :. For KRW (Korea), ˆ GDP t =.7 +.9SCAN t () t stat : (.) (.) AdjustedR :. ˆ GDP t =. +.GDP t +.SCAN t () t stat : (.) (.9) (.) AdjustedR :.79 For MXN (Mexico), ˆ GDP t =. +.SCAN t () t stat : (7.9) (9.) AdjustedR :.7 ˆ GDP t =.9 +.GDP t +.SCAN t () t stat : (.9) (.) (.9) AdjustedR :.79 For NOK (Norway), ˆ GDP t =.7 +.SCAN t () t stat : (.) (.) AdjustedR :. ˆ GDP t =.9 +.GDP t +.SCAN t (7) t stat : (.9) (.) (.9) AdjustedR :.79

5 For NZD (New Zealand), ˆ GDP t =.7 +.SCAN t () t stat : (.) (.) AdjustedR :. ˆ GDP t =. +.GDP t +.9SCAN t (9) t stat : (.7) (.) (.) AdjustedR :. For SEK (Sweden), ˆ GDP t =. +.7SCAN t () t stat : (9.7) (.) AdjustedR :. ˆ GDP t =. +.GDP t +.9SCAN t () t stat : (7.) (.) (.) AdjustedR :.99 For SGD (Singapore), ˆ GDP t =.7 +.9SCAN t () t stat : (.7) (.) AdjustedR :.9 ˆ GDP t =.7 +.GDP t +.9SCAN t () t stat : (.7) (.) (7.) AdjustedR :. ˆ GDP t =.9 +.9SCAN t () t stat : (.9) (.9) AdjustedR :.

6 For SPA (Spain), ˆ GDP t =.9 +.7GDP t +.7SCAN t () t stat : (.7) (.7) (.79) AdjustedR :.9 For TRY (Turkey), ˆ GDP t =. +.SCAN t () t stat : (.) (9.) AdjustedR :.7 ˆ GDP t =..GDP t +.99SCAN t (7) t stat : (.9) (.) (.) AdjustedR :. For TWD (Taiwan), ˆ GDP t =. +.9SCAN t () t stat : (.) (.9) AdjustedR :.9 ˆ GDP t =. +.GDP t +.9SCAN t (9) t stat : (.) (.) (.9) AdjustedR :.99 For ZAR (South Africa), ˆ GDP t =. +.99SCAN t () t stat : (.9) (.) AdjustedR :.9 ˆ GDP t =. +.GDP t +.9SCAN t () t stat : (.) (.) (.) AdjustedR :.7

7 ˆ GDP t =. +.9SCAN t () t stat : (.7) (.) AdjustedR : Figure : The SCAN/GDP regressions of Australia 7

8 9 Figure : The SCAN/GDP regressions of Brazil 9 Figure : The SCAN/GDP regressions of Canada

9 9 Figure : The SCAN/GDP regressions of Swiss 9 Figure : The SCAN/GDP regressions of China 9

10 9 Figure : The SCAN/GDP regressions of Europe 9 Figure 7: The SCAN/GDP regressions of France

11 9 Figure : The SCAN/GDP regressions of UK 9 Figure 9: The SCAN/GDP regressions of Germnay

12 9 Figure : The SCAN/GDP regressions of Italy 9 Figure : The SCAN/GDP regressions of Japan

13 9 Figure : The SCAN/GDP regressions of Korea 9 Figure : The SCAN/GDP regressions of Mexico

14 9 Figure : The SCAN/GDP regressions of Norway 9 Figure : The SCAN/GDP regressions of New Zealand

15 9 Figure : The SCAN/GDP regressions of Sweden 9 Figure 7: The SCAN/GDP regressions of Singapore

16 9 Figure : The SCAN/GDP regressions of Spain 9 Figure 9: The SCAN/GDP regressions of Turkey

17 9 Figure : The SCAN/GDP regressions of Taiwan 9 Figure : The SCAN/GDP regressions of South Africa 7